3794.6 The ocean and the geopolitics of energy: a question of critical infrastructure?

The world is moving in two counteracting directions. A renewable world is a networked world, with regions physically tied together in international power grids, taking us toward integration and interdependence. Simultaneously, increasing geopolitical hostility mandates greater national control over energy access and supply chains, leading to a renewed emphasis on sovereignty and rivalry. This chapter discusses the prospects of new maritime energy infrastructures (offshore wind and subsea cables) in a world of geopolitical rivalry. There are two main hurdles. First, international power grids challenge traditional notions of sovereignty. If there are major power disparities between interconnecting states, cross-border interconnections may create asymmetric dependencies rather than interdependencies. We illustrate this by a comparison of the prospects for a North Sea power grid vs. an Asian Super Grid. Second, there are security challenges. Geopolitical rivalries produce a far greater need for the physical protection of maritime infrastructures, at the exact same time as the green energy transition means that there is a massive increase in infrastructure requiring protection.